Saturday, January 29, 2005

CIA Sees U.S. as a Declining Power

FRED KAPLAN, SLATE - Who will be the first politician brave enough to declare publicly that the United States is a declining power and that America's leaders must urgently discuss what to do about it? This prognosis of decline comes not (or not only) from leftist scribes rooting for imperialism's downfall, but from the National Intelligence Council, the "center of strategic thinking" inside the U.S. intelligence community.

The NIC's conclusions are starkly presented in a new 119-page document, "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project." It is unclassified and available on the CIA's Web site. The report has received modest press attention the past couple weeks, mainly for its prediction that, in the year 2020, "political Islam" will still be "a potent force." Only a few stories or columns have taken note of its central conclusion:

The likely emergence of China and India ... as new major global players - similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century - will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

In this new world, a mere 15 years away, the United States will remain "an important shaper of the international order" - probably the single most powerful country - but its "relative power position" will have "eroded." The new "arriviste powers"- not only China and India, but also Brazil, Indonesia, and perhaps others - will accelerate this erosion by pursuing "strategies designed to exclude or isolate the United States" in order to "force or cajole" us into playing by their rules.


At 10:26 PM, Blogger Lawrence said...

Not to mention that the dollar is steadily slipping against most world currencies, most predominantly against the euro, to the point where many are speculating the euro will beocme the world's reserve currency, replacing the dollar. In the same vein, if China and India ever successfully position the yuan and rupee as fully-commoditized currencies (like the dollar, euro, yen, mark, etc.), our slide into irrelevance will be even more pronounced.

At 10:47 PM, Blogger Joe said...

Surfed in. Great site.

I hope there is another Bill Clinton out there in our future to restore American fiduciary strength and credibility. Also, another internet bubble wouldn't hurt.

At 10:49 AM, Blogger Luke said...


Hope for the best, plan for the worst, I guess.


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