Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Who Won?

From Republican columnist Andrew Sullivan:

THE POLLING: ABCNews' poll gives the debate to Cheney - by a margin of 43 to 35 percent, with 19 percent calling it a tie. That may end up as the conventional wisdom. But the viewing public made it skewed, because 38 percent of ABC's viewers were Republicans, 31 percent Democrats, and the rest independents. Adjust for that and it's almost a tie. CBS' poll - dismiss it, if you will - of only uncommitted voters found that 41 percent said Edwards won the debate, versus 28 percent who said Cheney won. Thirty-one percent said it was a tie. That makes more sense to me. In the ABC News poll, Bush supporters were particularly emphatic that Cheney won big. That makes sense to me psychologically - and it may help explain why so many conservatives viewed it as a huge Cheney win. They need to believe that right now, to keep their spirits up after last Thursday. The pundits also want to keep the interest alive and so may want to back Cheney to keep the race more interesting. My view is that Cheney undoubtedly fired up his base; but I doubt very much that he made any headway with swing voters, and may well have alienated many. Edwards helped Kerry tonight. I didn't expect it; but I'm sticking with my judgment. My view is that Republican bias is making many believe Cheney did much better than he actually did. I'd already discounted the Daddy factor. But we'll see, won't we?

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